PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Monsoon prediction accuracy
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: Monsoon prediction accuracy
During the last five years, from 2020 to 2024, the prediction for all India Southwest Monsoon Forecast (June-September) was accurate for 80% of the time. The details are given in Annexure-1.
The Ministry has launched the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for the monsoon rainfall in different time scales. This has focused on seasonal (June-September) and extended-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with delineation of active/break spells, using high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamical models with reasonable skill, as well as short-range forecasts. Through NMM, two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems were implemented for short-range to medium-range, extended-range, and seasonal forecasts.
IMD has adopted a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country based on the statistical forecasting system and the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model. IMD issues monthly and seasonal forecasts operationally for rainfall and temperature (including cold and heat waves) throughout the year.
IMD closely works with various ministries like the Central Water Commission (CWC), National and State Disaster Management Authorities, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), State Governments, etc., to issue various forecasts and warnings along with updated weather and climate information.
Annexure-1
IMD forecast for All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall for 2020 to 2024:
YEAR
ALL India Monsoon Rainfall
Actual
Forecast
Remark
2020
111
102
Outside the forecast error limit
2021
100
101
Accurate
2022
106
103
Accurate
2023
95
96
Accurate
2024
108
106
Accurate
***Model error ± 5% of LPA
Monsoon Rainfall Forecast over Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ)
YEAR
CMZ Monsoon Rainfall
Actual
Forecast
Remark
2020
FORECAST NOT ISSUED
2021
107
Above Normal (>106% of LPA)
Accurate
2022
121
Above Normal (>106% of LPA)
Accurate
2023
101
Normal (94-106% of LPA)
Accurate
2024
122
Above Normal (>106% of LPA)
Accurate
***Model error ±6% of LPA
Prediction for Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK)
YEAR
ACTUAL ONSET DATE
FORECAST ONSET DATE
Remark
2020
01-Jun
05-Jun
Accurate
2021
03-Jun
31-May
Accurate
2022
29-May
27-May
Accurate
2023
08-Jun
04-Jun
Accurate
2024
30-May
31-May
Accurate
***Model error ±4 days
This information was given by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology, Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in the Lok Sabha today.