PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECASTING AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN ASSAM
PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECASTING AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN ASSAM
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides seamless forecasts across time scales, ranging from seasonal forecasts to short-range and nowcasts. For the Southwest Monsoon 2025, IMD had predicted below-normal seasonal rainfall over Northeast India region (which includes Assam) as well as for the subdivision of Assam and Meghalaya. For this newly implemented Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting System was used. The realized seasonal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon over both the Northeast India region and Assam and Meghalaya subdivision was also below normal, in line with the IMD’s seasonal forecast. The details are provided in Annexure-1. For issuing short-range rainfall forecasts and heavy rainfall warnings, IMD primarily uses outputs from various global models. For heavy rainfall prediction during the Southwest Monsoon 2025, the skill of heavy rainfall forecasts for the Assam State as a whole is 89-94%, while at the district scale in Assam, it is 75-80% at lead time of Day 1 to Day 5.
Under the Mission Mausam, several initiatives have been taken to further improve forecast capabilities of the Multi-Model Ensemble framework like upgradation of coupled atmosphere–ocean models, assimilation of improved observational datasets, and greater use of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In addition, initiatives are taken to explore the use of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques for weather forecasting, including for understanding uncertainties at sub-seasonal and regional scales.
To enhance climate resilience in monsoon-dependent and flood-prone agricultural regions of Assam, the Government, through the IMD, has been increasing investment with the new Mission Mausam project to further improve its early warning system. IMD is also issuing Impact-based forecasts and agrometeorological advisories to support preparedness and risk mitigation. IMD also extends support to State agencies and the Central Water Commission (CWC) by timely sharing both observed and forecast rainfall to improve flood forecasts up to a 7-day lead time, which aids planning in districts affected by recurrent flooding, riverbank erosion, and rainfall variability. For timely dissemination to the last mile, various new digital platforms are currently in use in real time, including Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)-based alerts, and apps like MAUSAM, Meghdoot, and Damini, for the benefit of farmers, policymakers, and the general public. In addition, IMD conducts Climate Service User Forum meetings jointly with the State Government to facilitate stakeholder interaction and promote effective utilisation of weather and climate services.
The role of satellite-based monitoring immensely helps in enhancing weather prediction, flood forecasting, and disaster preparedness, especially for the State of Assam, by integrating various satellite data, e.g., cloud cover, winds, etc, with surface-based observations from rain gauges, Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs). Based on these inputs, IMD issued heavy rainfall warnings, flood-related advisories, and impact-based forecasts to support timely preparedness and response by State authorities. For climate resilience, IMD provides Extended Range Forecasts (ERF) with lead times of up to two weeks to support agricultural planning and reduce exposure to extreme rainfall, which complements seasonal climate outlooks. IMD also supplies high-resolution gridded rainfall data and historical climate data to assist hydrological studies and the planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. In addition, district-level agrometeorological advisories issued under the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) support farmers in crop planning, irrigation, and other field operations under variable weather conditions.
This information was submitted by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences and Science & Technology Dr. Jitendra Singh in Lok Sabha on 11th February 2026.
Annexure-1
Rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon 2025 over Assam and the Northeast Region:
Region
2025 Forecast Category of the LPA
Climatological Normal in mm (1971-2020)
Observed Rainfall Percentage Departure from LPA (Actual Rainfall in mm)
Remarks
Assam and Meghalaya (sub-division)
Below Normal (<93% of the LPA)
1762.2 mm
-49% of LPA
(906.4 mm)
The forecast was accurate
East & NE India (Homogenous rainfall Region)
Below Normal (<94% of the LPA)
1367.3 mm
-33% of LPA
(920 mm)
The forecast was accurate